Sweden Becomes Europe’s First Smoke-Free Nation

• Sweden reaches smoke-free status on 25th October 2025.
• This means that less than 5% of the population are daily smokers.
• Young Swedes led the shift, dropping below 5% by 2018.
• Smoking-related deaths in Sweden are the lowest in the EU.

On Saturday, October 25, Sweden is set to become Europe’s first smoke-free nation, marking a major public health milestone. ‘Smoke-free’ is a World Health Organisation definition which entails that less than 5% of the population are daily smokers.

This is based on calculations by the Swedish economist David Sundén, whose two reports, “Fighting smoking with alternative nicotine products” and “The race towards a smoke-free society” outlines why the Swedish model has been so successful in reducing smoking rates.

We spoke to David to find out more about his calculation process, and what this means for global harm reduction approaches.

“While it is of course very difficult to pinpoint an exact date, based on my calculations and existing public health statistics, it is precisely on October 25 that Sweden becomes smoke-free according to the WHO definition.

Smoke-free doesn’t mean that smoking disappears completely. The WHO and the EU share the same definition: fewer than 5% of the population smokes daily.”

“Sweden has shown that it is possible to reduce smoking rates drastically without relying only on bans.

The key has been the combination of higher cigarette taxes and access to alternatives like snus. That has given people choices instead of simply being forced to quit.”

“Sweden already passed a key milestone in 2018, with Swedes aged 15–24 having dropped below the 5% smoke-free threshold. That means that the number of Swedish young people smoking daily is now very low.

This low level of smoking amongst young people is one of the most important reasons why Sweden is now reaching the overall smoke-free goal.”

David continues:

“The difference becomes even clearer when comparing smoking-related deaths. In Bulgaria, 660 men per 100,000 people die from smoking-related diseases.

In Sweden, the figure is just 90 per 100,000 – by far the lowest in EU. In the UK, the rate is much higher, at 203 per 100,000.”

“The Swedish model is like a three-stage rocket – not only restrictive legislation and high cigarette taxes – but also access to snus and other nicotine alternatives.

 If the rest of the EU had followed the Swedish example, more than 217,000 European men could have been saved from premature death. Every year. It shows the enormous difference smart policy and access to alternatives can make.”

It’s not just the EU that lags behind Sweden. The USA and the UK do as well, although they are in a somewhat better position than the European average.

In the USA, 10.8% of the population still smokes. Their objective is to reach 6.1% by 2030 – but the country as a whole is not expected to be smoke-free until 2032. Young people are well on the way, but among older age groups, progress is much slower.

In the UK, the gap is even greater. With 11.9% of the population being daily smokers – more than twice as many as in Sweden, they are some way off meeting their objective of being smoke-free by 2030.

Projections show the country won’t fall below 5% until 2033 – eight years after Sweden. Sundén comments:

“Sweden is already where the UK and the USA hope to be in ten years’ time. Sweden shows that it is possible to reach the targets much faster than many believe.” 

Sweden is now a role model for other countries fighting smoking. Taking the EU as a whole, the bloc is still very far behind and is not expected to be smoke-free until well after 2045. 

“Sweden is essentially first in the world in this regard. And this has been achieved without relying on bans to the same extent as many other countries. It’s truly a victory for public health.”