Additional Healthy Year Could Generate Billions in Welfare Gains
The welfare debate often becomes fixated on funding levels. However, new analysis shows that better health in itself is one of the most cost‑effective welfare reforms available. And the path forward runs through nicotine pouches and other smoke‑free nicotine alternatives.
If today’s 50‑year‑olds across UK and Ireland were to gain, on average, one additional year of healthy life, the welfare gain would amount to almost £5 billion, 15 years in the future when the group is around retirement age. This is shown by new research published in the report UK and Ireland longevity trends can be boosted by Swedish‑style tobacco policies by Dr Nima Sanandaji.
What Is a Healthy Year Worth?
By comparing how much society invests in healthcare over a lifetime with how many healthy years this investment delivers, the newly published report estimates the welfare value of one additional healthy year as follows:
| England | approximately £5,230 per person |
| Wales | approximately £5,320 |
| Scotland | approximately £5,160 |
| Northerner Ireland | approximately £5,280 |
| Ireland | approximately £6,800 |
Taken together, for the current generation of 50-year-olds, this is estimated to generate a welfare value of £4.9 billion including Ireland, or £4.3 billion for the UK. This figure reflects what the value of e healthy life year is for society.
Another estimate is how much society benefits from greater ability of the elderly to be active before retirement, with one more healthy life year. That added economic value amounts to £28.9 billion for the UK alone, or £35.2 billion when Ireland is included.
"If on average the 50-year-olds today gain one additional healthy life year, this creates a substantial boost for the economy and also amounts to a welfare gain. The welfare gain reflect that healthy life years have a value in themselves, while the added economic value means that gross domestic product grows with a healthier elderly population."
Small Improvements – Major Impact
Since almost one million people fall within the relevant age group, even marginal improvements are enough to create value measured in billions.
"One additional healthy year is not an abstract number. It can even mean fewer years of illness, less dependence on healthcare, and a higher quality of life for the individual. Additional healthy life years create a significant boost to economic output, and in addition to this each healthy life year in itself is a welfare gain for society"
The report stresses that the estimated savings are conservatively calculated, and that society is likely to save far more by helping smokers quit for good.
Lifestyle Matters More than Budgets
The report also shows that variations in total healthcare spending, across both public and private providers, explain only a small share of differences in health outcomes. By contrast, the link between smoking and shorter – and less healthy – lives is well established.
"As the Tobacco and Vapes Bill now approaches, it is crucial that the legislation genuinely helps smokers move away from cigarettes. Dr Sanandaji’s report clearly shows that among the greatest welfare gains a society can achieve is reducing smoking. Nicotine pouches have already made Sweden Europe’s first smoke‑free country, and deadly diseases such as lung cancer are declining rapidly among Swedes. This positive development is often attributed to the combination of high cigarette taxes and access to snus and nicotine pouches. The UK now faces a choice."
