The Impact of Nicotine Pouches on Longevity: Could Save the UK and Ireland over £35 billion
Longevity is one of the great megatrends of our time. But what will ultimately determine future prosperity is not how long we live, but how long we live in good health. New research focusing on the UK and Ireland shows that just one additional year of healthy life for today’s 50‑year‑olds could generate more than £35 billion annually in future economic value.
"This report clearly demonstrates that public health is one of the most underestimated economic issues in today’s political debate. Helping people move away from cigarettes not only delivers enormous personal health benefits, but also unlocks major untapped economic opportunities."
Healthy Years Drive Labour Supply and Growth
The report UK and Ireland longevity trends can be boosted by Swedish-style tobacco policies by Dr Nima Sanandaji examines how Sweden’s approach to alternative nicotine products, such as snus and nicotine pouches, has enabled the country to become Europe’s first smoke‑free nation. As smoking rates have declined, so too have smoking‑related fatal diseases.
Dr Nima Sanandaji emphasises that when people remain healthy for longer:
- more people continue working later in life
- fewer retire early
- more remain active as entrepreneurs, executives and investors
The study is based on a conservative assumption: that one additional healthy year is split evenly between work and leisure. Even so, the economic effects are substantial.
"We often talk about growth as if it were only about investment and taxation. But better health is, in practice, a growth reform – and one that does not require vast public spending programmes."
The Value in Numbers
The report also estimates the economic value of one additional healthy year, for the current group of 50-year-olds, in relation to how their health status affects their ability to be active 15 years later in time.
In terms of future value creation, this corresponds to approximately:
| England | around £35,600 per person per year |
| Scotland | around £32,200 |
| Northern Ireland | around £29,600 |
| Wales | around £25,900 |
| Ireland | around £84,920 |
Taken together for the latest cohort of 50-year-olds, this amounts to £28.9 billion for the UK alone, or £35.2 billion when Ireland is included.
Health – but Not More Healthcare
One of the report’s most striking conclusions is that higher healthcare spending does not automatically lead to better health outcomes. Differences in healthy life expectancy between England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Ireland instead closely mirror differences in smoking prevalence.
This is where public health policy also becomes industrial policy.
"As policymakers redraw the regulatory landscape through the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, it is crucial not to lock people into the most harmful alternatives. Facilitating the transition from cigarettes to less harmful nicotine products is an investment in both public health and economic growth."
