Life Expectancy and Longevity Linked to Nicotine Use
Differences in life expectancy between England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Ireland are significant – and growing. The report shows that these disparities are not primarily driven by healthcare systems, but by lifestyle in general and smoking in particular. Substantial gains are therefore available, not only in terms of individual health but also for the wider economy.
The report UK and Ireland longevity trends can be boosted by Swedish‑style tobacco policies by Dr Nima Sanandaji examines differences in health outcomes between the countries and the link between longevity and the use of smoking alternatives such as snus, nicotine pouches and vapes.
Scotland: the Shortest and Least Healthy Lives
Scotland has:
- the shortest life expectancy for 50‑year‑old men
- the lowest number of healthy life years
- the most pronounced negative trend among women
- the highest smoking prevalence
- an estimated socio‑economic value of one additional healthy year of approximately £32,200 per person per year, since healthy elderly are more productive
- the additional healthy life years have a value in themselves; each represents a welfare gain of around £5,160 per person per year
England: Stable but Stagnating
England is close to the average, but:
- life expectancy has stalled
- healthy life years are declining
- outcomes are not improving despite relatively high healthcare spending
- the socio‑economic value of one additional healthy year is approximately £35,600 per person per year; this reflects future value that the current 50-year-olds can contribute with 15 years from now
- the welfare gain of each healthy life year is £5,230 per person in England, this measure is based on how many healthy life years that each person currently can look towards, and how much society invests in total health spending over the life-span to achieve this
Wales and Northern Ireland: Marked Internal Differences
Both show:
- shorter healthy lives than England
- substantial regional variation
- a strong link between smoking and poor health
- a socio‑economic value of one additional healthy year of approximately £25,900 per person in Wales and £29,600 per person in Northern Ireland per year
- the welfare benefit of each additional healthy life year is around £5,320 per person per year in Wales and £5,280 per person per year in Northern Ireland, the differences reflect how much is invested in health over the lifespan in each nation and how many healthy life years each average person can expect
Ireland: the Exception
Ireland stands out with:
- the longest life expectancy
- a more positive trend in healthy life years
- lower smoking prevalence
- a socio‑economic value of one additional healthy year of approximately £84,920 per person per year, since Ireland has high economic production per capita this effect is larger here
- the welfare benefit of each additional healthy life year around £6,800 per average 50-year-old, this higher value reflects that Ireland has higher total health expenditure, so more is invested over the lifespan for each expected average healthy life year
"When comparing countries and regions, the relationship becomes crystal clear: where smoking is more prevalent, lives are both shorter and less healthy. At a time when longevity is increasingly discussed, it is striking that more people do not recognise the potential of products such as nicotine pouches. A broader discussion and shared understanding could save billions of pounds every year."
In addition to cross‑country comparisons, the report also presents compelling regional data. Statistics that speak for themselves: nicotine pouches and other nicotine alternatives have enormous potential – not only to reduce smoking‑related disease and thereby increase life expectancy, but also to improve quality of life.
"That is precisely why the Tobacco and Vapes Bill and forthcoming legislation must facilitate the transition away from cigarettes. Otherwise, there is a real risk that both national and regional health inequalities will become entrenched."
